Unwinding

As earning reports come out in a flurry of activity, expect to hear about how things are bad, but not super-bad. I'm not sure what that means either. But the media is desperately trying to find something positive to report on when it comes to the market.

Why? Why is the media so intent on finding a positive spin to earnings reports that are terrible compared to last year at this time? Because they are human. They tend to have their own investments in the market, and like you and me, they too are tired of the bad news. So we can expect them to hope, and to be more receptive to good stories than bad.

But the earnings are not good. Many earnings, when compared to this time last year, are down over 50-80%. In some many cases, once profitable companies are now losing money, the percentage drop is infinite. Meanwhile, the DOW is down roughly 45%. That alone tells me that there is room to fall.

So I'm staying out of the way of this market. I still believe that 2009 will be a rough year financially, and that government spending is not the answer. In fact I'm short the market at these levels. As far as I can tell, the bigger opportunity is in falling markets.